Prop Hit Rates

A hit rate is not the same as +EV. Compare each hit rate with the price's implied % next to it. Small samples, injuries, role changes and minutes all matter. Lines are copied from public pages (New Jersey/Nevada feeds, not Arizona) and can be stale — ⚠ means check the price in the book's app before betting. Usage (USG%, target/rush share) and teammate-out splits are estimates computed from box scores. Injury tags come from ESPN's public injury report and can lag.